Wondering what’s in store for the housing market this year? And more specifically, what it all means for you if you plan to buy or sell a home? The best way to get that information is to lean on the pros.
Experts are constantly updating and revising their forecasts, so here’s the latest on two of the biggest factors expected to shape the year ahead: mortgage rates and home prices.
Everyone’s keeping an eye on mortgage rates and waiting for them to come down. So, the question is really: how far and how fast? The good news is they’re projected to ease a bit in 2025. But that doesn’t mean you should expect to see a return of 3-4% mortgage rates. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“Are we going to go back to 4%? Per my forecast, unfortunately, we will not. It’s more likely that we’ll go back to 6%.”
And the other experts agree. They’re forecasting rates could settle in the mid-to-low 6% range by the end of the year (see chart below):
But you should remember, this will continue to change as new information becomes available. Expert forecasts are based on what they know right now. And since everything from inflation to economic drivers have an impact on where rates go from here, some ups and downs are still very likely. So, don’t get caught up in the exact numbers here and try to time the market. Instead, focus on the overall trend and on what you can actually control.
A trusted lender and an agent partner will make sure you’ve always got the latest data and the context on what it really means for you and your bottom line. With their help, you’ll see even a small decline can help bring down your future mortgage payment.
The short answer? Not likely. While mortgage rates are expected to ease, home prices are projected to keep climbing in most areas – just at a slower, more normal pace. If you average the expert forecasts together, you’ll see prices are expected to go up roughly 3% next year, with most of them hitting somewhere in the 3 to 4% range. And that’s a much more typical and sustainable rise in prices (see graph below):
So don’t expect a sudden drop that’ll score you a big deal if you’re thinking of buying this year. While that may sound disappointing if you’re hoping prices will come down, refocus on this. It means you won’t have to deal with the steep increases we saw in recent years, and you’ll also likely see any home you do buy go up in value after you get the keys in hand. And that’s actually a good thing.
And if you’re wondering how it’s even possible prices are still rising, here’s your answer. It all comes down to supply and demand. Even though there are more homes for sale now than there were a year ago, it’s still not enough to keep up with all the buyers out there. As Redfin explains:
“Prices will rise at a pace similar to that of the second half of 2024 because we don’t expect there to be enough new inventory to meet demand.”
Keep in mind, though, the housing market is hyper-local. So, this will vary by area. Some markets will see even higher prices. And some may see prices level off or even dip a little if inventory is up in that area. In most places though, prices will continue to rise (as they usually do).
If you want to find out what’s happening where you live, you need to lean on an agent who can explain the latest trends and what they mean for your plans.
The housing market is always shifting, and 2025 will be no different. With rates likely to ease a bit and prices rising at a more normal and sustainable pace, it’s all about staying informed and making a plan that works for you.
Reach out to a local real estate pro to get the scoop on what’s happening in your area and advice on how to make your next move a smart one.
Today’s mortgage rates and home prices may have you second-guessing whether it’s still a good idea to buy a home right now. While market factors are definitely important, there’s also a bigger picture to consider: the long-term benefits of homeownership.
Think of it this way. If you know people who bought a home 5, 10, or even 30 years ago, you’re probably going to have a hard time finding someone who regrets their decision. That’s because over time, home values usually grow – and that means a homeowner’s net worth does too. Here’s a look at how that can really add up over the years.
The map below uses data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to show how much prices have grown over the last five years. Since home prices vary by area, the map is broken out regionally to really showcase larger market trends:
You can see that nationally, home prices increased by over 57% in just five years.
Some regions are slightly above or below that average, but overall, home prices saw a big uptick in a short time. And if you zoom out even more, the benefit of homeownership — and the drastic gains homeowners made over the years — become even more clear (see map below):
The second map shows that, over a roughly 30-year span, home prices appreciated by an average of more than 320% nationally.
So the typical homeowner who bought a house about 30 years ago saw their home triple in value during that time. And that’s a major reason so many homeowners who bought their homes years ago are still happy with their decision today.
There’s no denying today’s market is complex. But if you’re ready and able to buy right now, get in touch with an agent to talk through how you can still make your move happen. That way you can take advantage of the long-term advantages that come with homeownership, like your ability to build wealth as your home value rises.
One of the biggest questions on everyone’s minds right now is: when will mortgage rates come down? After several years of rising rates and a lot of bouncing around in 2024, we’re all eager for some relief.
While no one can project where rates will go with complete accuracy or the exact timing, experts offer some insight into what we might see going into next year. Here’s what the latest forecasts show.
After a lot of volatility and uncertainty, the most updated forecasts suggest rates will start to stabilize over the next year, and should ease a bit compared to where they are right now (see graph below):
As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.”
It’s important to note that the timing and the pace of what happens with mortgage rates is one of the most challenging forecasts to make in the housing market. That’s because these forecasts hinge on a few key factors all lining up. So don’t be fooled, because while rates are expected to come down slightly, they’re going to be a moving target. And the ups and downs of ongoing economic drivers will likely stick around. Here’s a look at just a few of the things that’ll influence where they go from here:
Remember, these forecasts are based on the best information available right now. As new economic data comes out, experts will revise their projections accordingly. So, don’t try to time the market based on these forecasts alone.
Instead, the best thing you can do is focus on what you can control right now. Work on improving your credit score, put away any extra cash for your down payment, and automate your savings. All of these things will help you reach your homeownership goals even faster.
And be sure to connect with a trusted agent and a lender, so you always have the latest updates – and an expert opinion on what that means for your move.
If you’re planning to move and want to stay informed about where mortgage rates are heading, connect with a trusted agent and lender.
Chances are you’re hearing a lot about mortgage rates right now, and all you really want to hear is that they’re coming back down. And if you’ve seen headlines about the early November Federal Funds Rate cut by the Federal Reserve (The Fed), maybe you got hopeful mortgage rates would start to decline right away. Although some media sources may lead you to believe that the Fed’s actions determine mortgage rates, in reality, they don’t.
The truth is, the Fed, the job market, inflation, geopolitical changes, and a whole list of other economic factors influence mortgage rates, too. So, while recent actions from the Fed set the stage for mortgage rates to come down over time — it’s going to be a gradual and, likely bumpy, process.
Here’s the best advice anyone can give you right now. While you may be tempted to wait for rates to fall, it’s really hard to try and time the market — there’s just too much that can have an impact. Instead, set yourself up for homebuying success by focusing on the factors you can control. Here’s what to prioritize if you’re looking to put your best foot forward.
Credit scores can play a big role in your mortgage rate. And the difference of just a few points can make a significant impact on your monthly payment. As an article from Bankrate explains:
“Your credit score is one of the most important factors lenders consider when you apply for a mortgage. Not just to qualify for the loan itself, but for the conditions: Typically, the higher your score, the lower the interest rates and better terms you’ll qualify for.”
With rates where they are today, maintaining a good credit score is one of the keys to getting the best rate possible. To find out where your credit score stands and what you can do to give it a boost, reach out to a trusted loan officer.
There are many types of loans, and each one offers different terms for qualified buyers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) says:
“There are several broad categories of mortgage loans, such as conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA loans. Lenders decide which products to offer, and loan types have different eligibility requirements. Rates can be significantly different depending on what loan type you choose. Talking to multiple lenders can help you better understand all of the options available to you.”
Work with your team of real estate professionals to see which loan types you may qualify for and figure out what will work best for you financially.
Just like with loan types, you have options when it comes to terms, or the length of your loan. As Freddie Mac says:
“When choosing the right home loan for you, it’s important to consider the loan term, which is the length of time it will take you to repay your loan before you fully own your home. Your loan term will affect your interest rate, monthly payment, and the total amount of interest you will pay over the life of the loan.”
Lenders typically offer mortgages in 15, 20, and 30-year terms. And which term you go with has a direct impact on your rate. Talk to your lender about which one is right for your situation.
Remember, you can’t control what happens in the broader economy or when mortgage rates will come down. But there are actions you can take that could help you set yourself up for success.
Connect with a local real estate agent and lender to go over what you can do now that’ll make a difference when you’re ready to move.
One major reason why we’re not heading toward a foreclosure crisis is the high level of equity homeowners have today. Unlike in the last housing bubble, where many homeowners owed more than their homes were worth, today’s homeowners have far more equity than debt.
That’s a big part of the reason why even though mortgage debt is at an all-time high, this isn’t 2008 all over again. As Bill McBride, Housing Analyst for Calculated Risk, explains:
“With the recent house price increases, some people are worried about a new housing bubble – but mortgage debt isn’t a concern . . .”
Today’s homeowners are in a much stronger position than ever before. So, let’s break it down and see why today’s mortgage debt isn’t anything to fear.
According to the St. Louis Fed, total homeowner equity is nearly triple the total mortgage debt today (see graph below):
High equity makes it less likely for homeowners to face foreclosure because they have more options. If someone struggles to make their mortgage payments, they could potentially sell their house and still come out ahead thanks to their built-up equity.
Even if home values were to dip, most homeowners would still have a comfortable cushion of equity. That’s a big contrast to the 2008 crisis, where many homeowners were underwater on their mortgages and had few options to avoid foreclosure.
Another reassuring sign is that, according to the NY Fed, the number of mortgage payments that are more than 90 days late is still near historic lows (see graph below):
This is partly due to a variety of programs designed to help homeowners through temporary hardships. As Marina Walsh, VP of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says:
“. . . servicers are helping at-risk homeowners avoid foreclosures through loan workout options that can mitigate temporary distress.”
So, even if someone falls behind on their payments, there are support systems in place to help them avoid foreclosure.
One other important factor is today’s low unemployment rate. More people have stable jobs, which means they’re better able to afford their mortgage payments. As Archana Pradhan, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, explains:
“Low unemployment numbers have helped reduce the overall delinquency rate . . .”
During the last housing crisis, unemployment was much higher, which led to a wave of foreclosures. Today’s unemployment rate is very different (see graph below):
That stability in how many people are employed is one of the reasons the market doesn’t have the same risks as it did the last time.
There’s no need to worry about a wave of distressed sales like the one we saw in 2008. Most homeowners today are employed and have low-interest mortgages they can afford, so they’re able to make their payments. As McBride states:
“The bottom line is there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble.”
While mortgage debt is high, rest assured the market isn’t on the brink of another crash. Instead, most homeowners are in a strong position. If you have questions or concerns, connect with a local real estate agent.
If you’ve been keeping an eye on mortgage rates lately, you might feel like you’re on a roller coaster ride. One day rates are up; the next they dip down a bit. So, what’s driving this constant change? Let’s dive into just a few of the major reasons why we’re seeing so much volatility, and what it means for you.
A significant factor causing fluctuations in mortgage rates is the general reaction to the political landscape. Election seasons often bring uncertainty to financial markets, and this one is no different. Markets tend to respond not only to who won, but also to the economic policies they are expected to implement. And when it comes to what’s been happening with mortgage rates over the past couple of weeks, as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says:
“. . . the primary reason interest rates have been on the rise pertains to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election. Although the election is now complete, there continue to be growing concerns over budget deficits.”
In the short term, this anticipation has caused a slight uptick in mortgage rates as the markets adjust and react. Additionally, factors like international tensions, supply chain disruptions, and trade policies can drive investor sentiment, causing them to seek safer assets like bonds, which can indirectly impact mortgage rates. Essentially, the more global or domestic uncertainty, the greater the chance that mortgage rates may shift.
Inflation and unemployment are two other big drivers of mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has been working to bring inflation under control, and has been closely monitoring the economy as they do. And as long as inflation continues to moderate and the job market shows signs of maximum employment, the Fed will continue its plans to cut the Federal Funds Rate.
Although the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, their decisions do have an impact, and typically a cut leads to a mortgage rates response. And in their November 6-7th meeting, the Fed had the data they needed to make another cut to the Federal Funds Rate. And while that decision was expected and much of the mortgage rate movement happened prior to that meeting, there was a slight dip in rates.
As we look ahead, mortgage rates will respond to changes in the Fed’s policies and other economic indicators. The markets will likely remain in a wait-and-see mode, reacting to each new development. And, with the transition of a new administration comes an element of unpredictability. A recent article from The Mortgage Reports explains:
“Today’s economic indicators come with mixed pressures on mortgage rates and we’re likely to be in for a good amount of volatility as markets adjust and respond to the election . . .”
The best way to navigate this landscape is to have a team of real estate experts by your side. Professionals will help you understand what’s happening and can provide you with the guidance you need to make informed housing market decisions along the way.
The takeaway? Today’s mortgage rate volatility is going to continue to be driven by economic factors and political changes.
Now is the time to lean on experienced professionals. A trusted real estate agent and mortgage lender can help you navigate through it. And with the right guidance, you can make informed decisions.
Over the past few years, some homeowners have decided to delay their move because they don’t want to sell and take on a higher mortgage rate on their next home. Maybe you’re thinking the same thing. And honestly, that’s no surprise. It’s a very common roadblock and is one of the biggest factors that’s kept the number of homes on the market so low for so long.
But a growing number of homeowners are deciding they just can’t wait any longer. Often, it’s because of personal or lifestyle change. As Redfin explains:
“Some homeowners are opting to bite the bullet and give up their low rate in order to move. Many are selling because a major life event like a job change, or divorce . . .”
If you’re weighing the decision to move, take a look at some of the top reasons others are choosing to sell. You might find those are reason enough for you to move now, too.
A new job in a different city, a desire to be closer to family, or simply wanting a change of scenery can all spark the need to sell.
Let’s say you’ve landed a great job offer that requires relocating, listing your current home quickly may be the next logical step.
Sometimes, your current home just doesn’t fit your lifestyle anymore. A growing family, the need for a home office, or more room for entertaining can all drive the decision to upgrade to a larger space.
As an example, if you live in a condo and have a baby on the way, selling might be the next best move so you can find a larger home that suits your needs.
On the flip side, some homeowners are ready to downsize. This could be due to children moving out, retirement, or simply wanting less to maintain.
If you’re newly retired and dreaming of a simpler lifestyle, downsizing to a smaller home could free up both time and resources to enjoy this new chapter of life.
Big changes like divorce, separation, or marriage often lead to a need for new living arrangements.
If you just went through a divorce, selling the house you once shared may allow both of you to move forward and find a living situation that works better for you now.
Health concerns, especially those that affect mobility, can also drive the decision to sell. A home that once worked well might no longer suit your needs.
If this sounds like your experience right now, selling your current home to move into a more accessible space, or even using the proceeds for assisted living, could significantly improve your quality of life.
Selling your home isn’t just about market conditions or mortgage rates—it’s also about making the best decision for your lifestyle and future. As Bankrate says:
“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal choice. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based . . . Your future plans and goals should be a significant part of the equation.”
If a major life change has you thinking about moving, now might still be the right time to sell. Work with a trusted real estate professional to help you navigate the process.
You may be hearing a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and how their actions will impact the housing market right now. Here’s why.
The Fed meets again this week to decide the next step with the Federal Funds Rate. That’s how much it costs banks to borrow from each other. Now, that’s not the same thing as setting mortgage rates, but mortgage rates can be influenced through this process. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you may be wondering about the downstream impact and when mortgage rates will come down.
Here’s a quick rundown of what you need to know to help you anticipate what’ll happen next. The Fed’s decisions are guided by these three key economic indicators:
Let’s take a look at each one.
You’ve likely noticed prices for everyday goods and services seem to be higher each time you make a purchase at the store. That’s because of inflation – and the Fed wants to see that number come back down so it’s closer to their 2% target.
Right now, it’s still higher than that. But despite a little volatility, inflation has generally been moving in the right direction. It gradually came down over the past two years, and is holding fairly steady right now (see graph below):
The path of inflation – though still not at their target rate – is a big part of the reason why the Fed will likely lower the Fed Funds Rate again this week to make borrowing less expensive, while still ensuring the economy continues to grow.
The Fed is also keeping an eye on how many new jobs are added to the economy each month. They want job growth to slow down a bit before they cut the Federal Funds Rate further. When fewer jobs are created, it shows the economy is still doing well, but gradually cooling off—exactly what they’re aiming for. And that’s what’s happening right now. Reuters says:
“Any doubts the Federal Reserve will go ahead with an interest-rate cut . . . fell away on Friday after a government report showed U.S. employers added fewer workers in October than in any month since December 2020.”
Employers are still hiring, but just not as many positions right now. This shows the job market is starting to slow down after running hot for a while, which is what the Fed wants to see.
The unemployment rate shows the percentage of people who want jobs but can’t find them. A low unemployment rate means most people are working, which is great. However, it can push inflation higher because more people working means more spending—and that makes prices go up.
Many economists consider any unemployment rate below 5% to be as close to full employment as is realistically possible. In the most recent report, unemployment is sitting at 4.1% (see graph below):
Unemployment this low shows the labor market is still strong even as fewer jobs were added to the economy. That’s the balance the Fed is looking for.
Overall, the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see – and that’s why experts say they will likely cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter of a percentage point this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
If that expectation ends up being correct, that could pave the way for mortgage rates to come down too. But that doesn’t mean they’ll fall immediately. It will take some time. Remember, the Fed doesn’t determine mortgage rates. Forecasts show mortgage rates will ease more gradually over the course of the next year as long as these economic indicators continue to move in the right direction and the Fed can continue their Federal Funds rate cuts through 2025.
But a change in any one of the factors mentioned here could cause a shift in the market and in the Fed’s actions in the days and months ahead. So, brace for some volatility, and for mortgage rates to respond along the way. As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, notes:
“The trajectory of rates over the coming months will be largely dependent on three key factors: (1) the performance of the labor market, (2) the outcome of the presidential election, and (3) any possible reemergence of inflationary pressure. While volatility has been the theme of mortgage rates over the past several months, we expect stability to reemerge towards the end of November and into early December.”
While the Fed’s actions play a part, economic data and market conditions are what really drive mortgage rates. As we move through the rest of 2024 and 2025, expect rates to stabilize or decline gradually, offering more certainty in what has been a volatile market.
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