Buying Beats Renting in 22 Major U.S. Cities

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Buying Beats Renting in 22 Major U.S. Cities.

That’s right—according to a recent study from Zillow, in 22 of the 50 largest metro areas, monthly mortgage payments are now lower than rent payments (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedAs mortgage rates have eased off their recent peak, home prices have moderated, and inventory has ticked up, affordability has improved significantly. When you add all of that up, it’s getting less expensive to buy a home than to rent one in many parts of the country.

This is a big deal if you’ve been renting for a while now. But if you don’t see your city on this list, don’t sweat it. Things are moving fast, and your area might be joining these top metros soon.

You see, talking with a local real estate agent about what’s happening in your market before this happens in your ideal neighborhood could really change the game for you. It’s all about being informed by a true expert, and understanding what was out of reach before might actually be getting more affordable than you think. 

Now, while this study compares monthly rent to principal and interest on a mortgage payment (not the whole monthly payment), let’s think through this. As Zillow notes, what you can’t ignore when you buy a home are things like taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance that should also be factored into your budget and your monthly payment.

But remember – renters pay extra fees too, like renters’ insurance, utilities, parking, and more. And while doing the math may feel like a drag, this equation could be a much more exciting one to work through today.

So, grab your calculator and your agent because the big takeaway is this: it may be time to determine if you’re in a spot to afford what you couldn’t just a few months ago.

As Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:

“… for those who can make it work, homeownership may come with lower monthly costs and the ability to build long-term wealth in the form of home equity — something you lose out on as a renter. With mortgage rates dropping, it’s a great time to see how your affordability has changed and if it makes more sense to buy than rent.”

Whether you live in one of these budget-friendly metros where the scales have already tipped in your favor, or any town in-between, it’s time to connect with a local real estate agent to get the conversation started.

With mortgage rates coming down and more homes hitting the market, you’ll want to be ready to jump back into your search – before everyone else does.

Bottom Line

If you’re tired of renting and ready to find out what it takes to purchase a home in your area now that the landscape may be shifting, connect with a local real estate agent to do the math and see if buying a home makes sense for you now or sometime soon. 

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The Best Time To Buy a Home This Year

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The Best Time To Buy a Home This Year.

A shift is underway in the housing market this season. And if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to jump back into your homebuying search, this is a great time to do it. That’s because the best week to buy a home this year is just around the corner. Your sweet spot is here.

 The experts at Realtor.com study seasonal trends to figure out the ideal week for homebuyers:

“Nationally, the best time to buy in 2024 is the week of Sept. 29–Oct. 5. This week historically has shown the best balance of market conditions that favor buyers. Inventory tends to be high, prices are below peak levels, demand is waning, and the pace of the market slows to a more manageable speed.” 

In addition to the historical trends and typical seasonality that Realtor.com looks at, there are also clear indicators in today’s market data that you’ll see better conditions right now than you would have over the last few years.

Mortgage rates just hit their lowest point in 19 months, and that goes a long way to help with your purchasing power and affordability. Andy Walden with Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) points out:

“Recent easing in mortgage rates brought some much-sought relief to prospective homebuyers. Along with a general cooling in home price growth, rates falling below 6.5 percent made August the most affordable month for housing since February.”

And Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains that it’s not just rates that have improved – inventory has too: 

“The number of homes actively for sale continues to be elevated compared with last year, growing by 35.8%, a 10th straight month of growth, and now sits at the highest since May 2020.”

That should give you more options. At the same time, sellers now have to compete with each other for your attention. That means they’ll be more likely to negotiate because they know their house will sit on the market longer if they don’t. As Zillow says:

“Buyers waiting on the sidelines could find that early fall presents a ‘sweet spot,’ where there’s less competition from other buyers, more motivated sellers and lower interest rates to finance their purchases.”

Bottom Line

If you want to make sure you’re ready to take advantage of this sweet spot, connect with a local real estate agent and start the prep work now. Maybe it’s time to get off the sidelines and into the action.

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The Surprising Amount of Home Equity You’ve Gained over the Years

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The Surprising Amount of Home Equity You’ve Gained over the Years.

There are a number of reasons you may be thinking about selling your house. And as you weigh your options, you may find you’re unsure how you’re going to deal with one thing about today’s housing market – and that’s affordability. If that’s your biggest concern, understanding how much equity you have in your house could help make your decision that much easier. Here are two key factors that have a big impact on your equity.

How Long You’ve Been in Your Home

First up is homeowner tenure. That’s how long homeowners live in a house, on average, before selling or choosing to move. From 1985 to 2009, the average length of time homeowners stayed put was roughly six years. 

But according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), that number has been climbing. Now, the average tenure is 10 years (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedHere’s why that’s such a big deal. You gain equity as you pay down your home loan and as home prices climb. And when you combine all of your mortgage payments with how much prices have gone up over the span of 10 years, that adds up. So, if you’ve lived in your house for a while now, you may be sitting on a pile of equity.

How Home Prices Appreciate over Time

To help show how much the price appreciation piece adds up, take a look at this data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) (see graph below): 

No Caption ReceivedHere’s what this means for you. While home prices vary by area, the typical homeowner who’s been in their house for five years saw it increase in value by nearly 60%. And the average homeowner who’s owned their home for 30 years saw it more than triple in value in that time.

Whether you’re looking to downsize, relocate to a dream destination, or move so you can live closer to friends or loved ones, your equity can be a game changer.

Bottom Line

Connect with a local real estate agent if you want to find out how much equity you’ve built up over the years and how you can use it to buy your next home.

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Are We Heading into a Balanced Market?

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Are We Heading into a Balanced Market?.

If you’ve been keeping an eye on the housing market over the past couple of years, you know sellers have had the upper hand. But is that going to shift now that inventory is growing? Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know.

What Is a Balanced Market?

A balanced market is generally defined as a market with about a five-to-seven-month supply of homes available for sale. In this type of market, neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. Prices tend to stabilize, and there’s a healthier number of homes to choose from. And after many years when sellers had all the leverage, a more balanced market would be a welcome sight for people looking to move. The question is – is that really where the market is headed?

After starting the year with a three-month supply of homes nationally, inventory has increased to four months. That may not sound like a lot, but it means the market is getting closer to balanced – even though it’s not quite there yet. It’s important to note this increase in inventory is not leading to an oversupply that would cause a crash. Even with the growth lately, there’s still nowhere near enough supply for that to happen.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to give you an idea of where inventory has been in the past, and where it’s at today:

No Caption ReceivedFor now, this is still seller’s market territory – it’s just not as frenzied of a seller’s market as it’s been over the past few years. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

“The faster housing supply increases, the more affordability improves and the strength of a seller’s market wanes.”

What This Means for You and Your Move

Here’s how this shift impacts you and the market conditions you’ll face when you move. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:

“Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.”

The graphs below use the latest data from NAR and Realtor.com to help show examples of these changes:

Homes Are Sitting on the Market Longer: Since more homes are on the market, they’re not selling quite as fast. For buyers, this means you may have more time to find the right home. For sellers, it’s important to price your house right if you want it to sell. If you don’t, buyers might choose better-priced options.

Sellers Are Receiving Fewer Offers: As a seller, you might need to be more flexible and willing to compromise on price or terms to close the deal. For buyers, you could start to face less intense competition since you have more options to choose from.

Fewer Buyers Are Waiving Inspections: As a buyer, you have more negotiation power now. And that’s why fewer buyers are waiving inspections. For sellers, this means you need to be ready to negotiate and address repair requests to keep the sale moving forward.

How a Real Estate Agent Can Help

But this is just the national picture. The type of market you’re in is going to vary a lot based on how much inventory is available. So, lean on a local real estate agent for insight into how your area stacks up.

Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding how the market is changing gives you a big advantage. Your agent has the latest data and local insights, so you know exactly what’s happening and how to navigate it.

Bottom Line

The real estate market is always changing, and it’s important to stay informed. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding this shift toward a balanced market can help. If you have any questions or need expert advice, don’t hesitate to reach out to a local real estate agent.

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What’s the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?

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What’s the Impact of Presidential Elections on the Housing Market?

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It’s no surprise that the upcoming Presidential election might have you speculating about what’s ahead. And those unanswered thoughts can quickly spiral, causing fear and uncertainty to swirl through your mind. So, if you’ve been considering buying or selling a home this year, you’re probably curious about what the election might mean for the housing market – and if it’s still a good time to make your move.

Here’s the good news that may surprise you: typically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. But your questions are definitely worth answering, so you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime.

Here’s a look at decades of data that shows exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates in previous Presidential election cycles, so you can move forward with the facts as you weigh the pros and cons of your homeownership decision.

Home Sales

In the month leading up to a Presidential election, from October to November, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below):

Some consumers will simply wait it out before they make their purchase decision. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is small and temporary.

Historically, home sales bounce right back and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the year after the election, and it’s been happening consistently since the early 1990s (see chart below):

Home Prices

You may also be wondering about home prices. Do prices come down during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices generally rise over time, regardless of an election cycle. So, based on what history shows, you can expect the current pricing trend in your local market to likely continue, barring any unusual market or economic circumstances.

The latest data from NAR reveals that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedThe one outlier was from 2008 to 2009, which was during the height of the housing market crash. That was certainly not a typical year. Today’s market, however, is much more resilient. And while prices are moderating nationally, they aren’t on an overall decline.

Mortgage Rates

And the third thing that’s likely on your mind is mortgage rates, since they impact your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of them (see chart below):

No Caption ReceivedAnd this year, we’ve already started to see that happen. Most experts also forecast mortgage rates will ease slightly throughout the rest of 2024. If that happens – and all signs right now indicate it should – this year will continue to follow the trend of declining rates. So, if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be great news for your purchasing power.

What This Means for You

What’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. And this means you don’t have to pause your plans in the meantime. For help navigating the market during this election cycle, reach out to a local real estate agent. 

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How Growing Inventory Benefits Today’s Buyers

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How Growing Inventory Benefits Today’s Buyers

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Some Highlights

  • While the number of homes for sale varies by local area, nationally we’re up over 36% year-over-year, but still down almost 29% compared to what’s normal.​
  • Here’s what that means when you buy: more options for your search, more negotiation power for you, it’s more likely sellers will make select repairs, and more moderate price growth.
  • If you want to talk more about what rising inventory means for you, connect with a local real estate agent.
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Are There More Homes for Sale Where You Live?

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Are There More Homes for Sale Where You Live?.

One of the biggest bright spots in today’s housing market is how much the supply of homes for sale has grown since the beginning of this year. 

Recent data from Realtor.com shows that nationally, there are 36.6% more homes actively for sale now compared to the same time last year. That’s a significant improvement. It gives you far more options for your move than you would’ve had just a year ago. And with supply improving, you’re also regaining a bit of negotiation power. So, if you’re someone who thought about buying a home over the last few years but was discouraged by how limited inventory was, this should be welcome news.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

 “Increased housing supply spells good news for consumers who want to see more properties before making purchasing decisions.”

But just so you have perspective, even though inventory has grown, that doesn’t mean we’ve suddenly flipped to an oversupply of homes on the market. There are nowhere near enough homes for sale to make prices crash. If you compare today’s inventory levels to more normal, pre-pandemic numbers (2017–2019), there are still roughly 29% fewer homes actively for sale now (see graph below):

So, while we’re up by almost 37% year-over-year, we’re still not back to how much inventory there’d be in a normal market. 

As Bill McBride, Housing Analyst for Calculated Risk, explains:

 “ . . . currently inventory is increasing year-over-year but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.”

But that’s okay. It’s to be expected. As a country, it’ll take a while to get back to the typical level of homes for sale. And the good news for buyers is, in some select markets, it’s closer to being a reality.

Here’s a rundown of what today’s inventory growth looks like by region (see graph below):

No Caption ReceivedReal estate will always be hyper-local. If you want to find out what inventory numbers look like where you live, reach out to a local agent. They’ll be able to tell you what they’re seeing and how it stacks up to the national market. You may find you have even more opportunity to move where you are.

Bottom Line

The supply of homes across the country is improving in a big way. As a buyer, that gives you more options for your home search, and ultimately, a better chance of finding what you like.

So, what are you looking for in a home? And what’s your budget? Reach out to a local agent to go over that together to find the options that may be right for you.

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3 Reasons Why We’re Not Headed for a Housing Crash

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3 Reasons Why We’re Not Headed for a Housing Crash.

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Some Highlights

  • Back in 2008, there was an oversupply of homes for sale. Today, there’s an undersupply. The three main sources of inventory show this isn’t like the last time.
  • Existing homes, new homes, and foreclosures are all way below the levels we saw during the housing crash.
  • Inventory data shows there just aren’t enough homes available to have a repeat of what happened back in 2008. 
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Unlocking Homebuyer Opportunities in 2024

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Unlocking Homebuyer Opportunities in 2024.

There’s no arguing this past year has been difficult for homebuyers. And if you’re someone who has started the process of searching for a home, maybe you put your search on hold because the challenges in today’s market felt like too much to tackle. You’re not alone in that. A Bright MLS study found some of the top reasons buyers paused their search in late 2023 and early 2024 were:

  • They couldn’t find anything in their price range
  • They didn’t have any successful offers or had difficulty competing
  • They couldn’t find the right home

If any of these sound like why you stopped looking, here’s what you need to know. The housing market is in a transition in the second half of 2024. Here are four reasons why this may be your chance to jump back in.

1. The Supply of Homes for Sale Is Growing

One of the most significant shifts in the market this year is how the months’ supply of homes for sale has increased. If you look at data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you’ll see how inventory has grown throughout 2024 (see graph below): No Caption Received

This graph shows the months’ supply of existing homes – homes that were previously lived in by another homeowner. The upward trend this year is clear.

This increase means you have a better chance of finding a home that suits your needs and preferences. And if the biggest reason you put off your home search was difficulty finding the right home, this is a big relief.

2. There’s More New Home Construction

And if you still don’t see an existing home you like, another big opportunity lies in the rise of new home construction. Builders have worked to increase the supply of newly built homes this year. And they’ve turned their attention to crafting smaller, more affordable homes based on what’s most needed in today’s market. This helps address the long-standing issue of housing undersupply throughout the country, and those smaller homes also offset some of the affordability challenges you’re feeling today.

According to data from the Census and NAR, one in three homes on the market is a newly built home (see graph below):No Caption Received

This means, that if you didn’t previously look at newly built homes as part of your search, you may have been cutting your pool of options by a third. Not to mention, some builders are also offering incentives like buying down mortgage rates to make it easier for buyers to get a home that fits their budget.

So, consider talking to your agent about what builders have to offer in your area. Your agent’s expertise on builder reputations, contracts, and more will help you weigh your options.

3. Less Buyer Competition

Mortgage rates are still hovering around 7%, so buyer demand isn’t as fierce as it once was. And when you combine that with more housing supply, you have a better chance of avoiding an intense bidding war. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, highlights the positive trend for the latter half of 2024, saying:

“Home shoppers who persist could see better conditions in the second half of the year, which tends to be somewhat less competitive seasonally, and might be even more so since inventory is likely to reach five-year highs.”

This creates a unique opportunity for you to find a home you want to buy with less stress and at a potentially better price.

4. Home Prices Are Moderating

Speaking of prices, home prices are also showing signs of moderation – and that’s a welcome shift after the rapid appreciation seen in recent years (see graph below): No Caption Received

This moderation is mostly due to supply and demand. Supply is growing and demand is easing, so prices aren’t rising as fast. But make no mistake, that doesn’t mean prices are falling – they’re just rising at a more normal pace. You can see this in the graph. The bars are still showing prices increasing, just not as dramatic as it was before.

The average forecast for home price appreciation in 2024 is for positive growth around 3% to 5%, which is more in line with historical norms. That moderation means that you are less likely to face the steep price increases we saw a few years ago.

The Opportunity in Front of You

If you’re ready and able to buy, you may find that the second half of 2024 is a bit easier to navigate. There are still challenges, but some of the biggest hurdles you’ve faced are getting better as time wears on.

On the other hand, you could choose to wait. But if you do, here’s the risk you run. As more buyers recognize the shift in the market, competition will grow again. On a similar note, if mortgage rates do come down (as forecasts say), more buyers will flood back into the market. So, making a move now helps you take advantage of the current market conditions and get ahead of those other buyers.

Bottom Line

If you’ve put your dream of homeownership on hold, the second half of 2024 may be your chance to jump back in. Connect with a real estate agent to talk more about the opportunities you have in today’s market.

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Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008

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Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008.

Even if you didn’t own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says:

“Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.”

Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn’t show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:

  • Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)
  • New home construction (newly built homes)
  • Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)

And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008.

Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses

Although the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it’s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months’ supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly.

If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), we only have about a third of that available inventory today. No Caption Received

So, what does this mean? There just aren’t enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that’s not the case right now.

New Home Construction

People are also talking a lot about what’s going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. Even though new homes make up a larger percentage of the total inventory than the norm, there’s no need for alarm. Here’s why.

The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you’ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then: No Caption Received

There’s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren’t overbuilding today, they’re catching up. A recent article from Bankrate says:

“What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.”

Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)

The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.

Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show how things have changed since the housing crash: No Caption Received

This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (shown in black) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.

While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up – remember, that’s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We’re still below the normal level we’d see in a typical year.

What This Means for You

Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As Forbes explains:

“As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.”

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren’t headed for a crash:

“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”

And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.”

Bottom Line

The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn’t a crash on the horizon.

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